I worship scones and danishes. If I never had another meal, I wouldn’t care as long as I could eat pastries and jelly doughnuts. -Gene Simmons (BrainyQuote.com)

OPEC, VALE, jelly, and KTOS…It was not as busy as Tuesday but there was more activity in my portfolio than usual.

OPEC 

They decided to cut production. Oil is right under $50 now. I’m glad I filled up on gas yesterday! It kind of hurt looking at CHK, USO, RIG, and MRO today on my watch list. I considered rolling the dice on those yesterday, but I decided to restrain myself against socially acceptable gambling. I console myself with the 4.45% increase that BP had. Congratulations to those that made money! To those that lost, I will send out an E-hug to you in the ether…

VALE

It was fun while it lasted. I thought it would actually survive the day. However, it decided to go to the dark side after lunch. My stop loss got triggered at $8.40 and ended up selling all shares at $8.4101. This comes out to a 20.49% gain for the rest of my shares. This is my first trade where I really added heavily to a position after it pulled back from going up. I never took profits in the high 8s or low 9s. Greed and fear played a heavy role in this. I didn’t want to sell too soon and miss further gains (greed). Then I got to the point where I didn’t want to end up losing all that I had gained (fear).  I am not against getting back in on VALE if it goes back to mid to low 7s. I am not even close to confident enough to try shorting this!

Jelly

I bought 50 more shares of Smuckers (SJM) at $126.50. This brings my average price up to $126.28. I don’t just dollar cost average down. I do it up too!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SJM closed at $125.95 today. I was trying to figure out why it was down on the day. It was strong yesterday and doing well this morning before deciding to nosedive. Then I saw it on my feed. The Jefferies Group downgrade to hold with a price target of $125.00. My reaction was something like:

 

via GIPHY

I decided to do the only reasonable thing and buy more shares! I decided to go into accumulation (laughing at calling it this with only 125 shares in total) beast mode and collect all the jelly, coffee, and pet food that my portfolio can handle. Look at that beautiful flat line (pictured above joker) around $125ish + or – a few. What’s that hodge podge mumbo jumbo that I always hear repeated? What was once resistance then becomes support? Other price targets include (https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/SJM/?RegistrationCode=SocialMedia-StockTwits):

  • Credit Suisse Group AG as hold with price target (PT) of $134.00
  • Deutsche Bank AG as a buy with PT of $162.00 (raised from $150.00)
  • Out of 12 ratings there is an avg PT of $141.11 as a hold

Other things I like about SJM (brace yourself for biased puke!)

  • The company was founded in 1897!
  • 2.38% yield ($3.00 annual)
  • 14 years of consecutive divi increases (dividend.com)
  • Annualized divi growth last 5 yrs is 11.1% and last 3 years 9.1% (suck it inflation!) [Also dividend.com]
  • Pay out ratio is 46.20% for divis. Plenty of room for future growth
  • 9.60% off 52 week low and 19.08% off 52 week high
  • I love their products!

I will be eagerly watching to see if we retest $124.85 that was reached on November 18, 2016.

KTOS

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. provides mission critical products, solutions, and services primarily for the Government and commercial customers. The company operates through three segments, Kratos Government Solutions, Unmanned Systems, and Public Safety & Security. The Kratos Government Solutions segment offers microwave electronic products; satellite communications; technical and training solutions; modular systems; and defense and rocket support services. The Unmanned Systems segment provides unmanned aerial, ground, seaborne and command, control, and communications systems. The Public Safety & Security segment offers integrated solutions for homeland security, public safety, and critical infrastructure, as well as security and surveillance systems. This segment serves critical infrastructure, power generation, power transport, nuclear energy, financial, IT, healthcare, education, transportation, and petro-chemical industries, as well as government and military customers. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in San Diego, California. (yahoo finance)

I thought about maybe hopping in on a Lockheed Martin (LMT) or Raytheon (RTN) but decided to go with a riskier play (my opinion at least) in KTOS. I got in at $7.20 today. It closed at $7.32. I am keeping my stop tight on this one at $7.00.

The avg 1 yr price target according to yahoo finance is $7.67. I am looking for a larger gain with this stock though.  Kratos Receives High Performance Unmanned Aerial Drone System Contract Award. They have recently received some other contracts that you can read about on whichever site you like to use. I plan to be in and out of this one fairly quickly (maybe a week or two?). I have set my risk level already and am ready to play.

I can’t remember if it was Market Wizards or a different trading book by Steve Burns where I read that you can either care about being right or care about making money. I personally care about making money. Having the technicals and fundamentals on my side does not comfort me when I’m losing money. Nor does having the technicals and fundamentals against me dampen my exuberance when I’m making money. The buck literally stops when I click confirm trade. Money management, money management, money management…Then maybe I will work on controlling exuberance and pain cave…Work in progress…

 

Good luck to all,

 

JT

via GIPHY

 

 

Ouch! Today my portfolio got hit by 2.63%! That’s what happens when you are heavy in mining companies on a pull back. I decided to cut, trim and reallocate many of my positions today. I also bought my first ETF!

 

  • SOLD all of FCX at $15.0401 (avg buy price was $14.46) . Gain of 4.01%.
  • SOLD all of BHP at $37.2907 (avg buy price was $37.63). Loss of 0.9%.
  • SOLD half of ATVI position at $37.3307 (avg buy price was $39.13). Loss of 4.6%.
  • SOLD 750 shares of VALE position at $8.60 (avg buy price was $6.91). Gain of 24.46%.
  • Bought 50 shares of SJM at $126.52 (current avg price $126.06)
  • Bought 350 shares of HACK ETF at $27.31

I believe this is the most activity that I have ever had in one day. It comes out to a little under $30 in commissions. I felt like this was necessary though as I was caught with my pants down thinking I would keep getting all of the gains from my mining stocks. Greed took over, and I had to take corrective actions before I lost it all.

(via GIPHY)

I was trying to get out of FCX at $15.40s but slow internet ruled again! I can’t blame it on that though. Greed and lack of discipline is the reason I got a small gain as opposed to getting out over $16. I was also too heavy in this sector for too long. Something had to give and I got to eat a nice pie of slippage. I still hold 1500 shares of VALE but put a stop at $8.40. I do not want to get stopped out tomorrow but am very aware that Mr. Market does not care about that.

I am excited about the cyber security ETF (HACK) that I got into today as well. I think this sector will continue to be in high demand in order to prevent (slow down?) hacking. Businesses, politicians, celebrities, and the everyday Joe/Jill are all susceptible to this. I do not know enough about which companies are hot or not so decided to go with an ETF on this trade.

HACK’s top 5 holdings from Morningstar:

  1. Science Applications International Corp
  2. Juniper Networks Inc
  3. Proofpoint Inc
  4. Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
  5. Trend Micro Inc

I also trimmed up ATVI and VALE positions as I felt that too much of my portfolio were in both of those companies. This gives me some buying power if oil/energy stocks tank from OPEC tomorrow. If nothing else this portfolio-scaping will allow me to sleep better!

via GIPHY

 

As I was finishing this up, VALE  got called out on the lightning round on Mad Money. There was a negative take to it as it has already gained so much. Ill be curious to see if I get stopped out or if it goes to the moon tomorrow! If I do get stopped out, I might look for a re-entry if it continues falling.

There is a lot of uncertainty even though the VIX is at 12.90. Hopefully, I am running with other people that are slower than me so the bears do not get me!

Good luck to all (unless you are trying to outrun me when a bear is chasing me).

 

JT