I worship scones and danishes. If I never had another meal, I wouldn’t care as long as I could eat pastries and jelly doughnuts. -Gene Simmons (BrainyQuote.com)

OPEC, VALE, jelly, and KTOS…It was not as busy as Tuesday but there was more activity in my portfolio than usual.

OPEC 

They decided to cut production. Oil is right under $50 now. I’m glad I filled up on gas yesterday! It kind of hurt looking at CHK, USO, RIG, and MRO today on my watch list. I considered rolling the dice on those yesterday, but I decided to restrain myself against socially acceptable gambling. I console myself with the 4.45% increase that BP had. Congratulations to those that made money! To those that lost, I will send out an E-hug to you in the ether…

VALE

It was fun while it lasted. I thought it would actually survive the day. However, it decided to go to the dark side after lunch. My stop loss got triggered at $8.40 and ended up selling all shares at $8.4101. This comes out to a 20.49% gain for the rest of my shares. This is my first trade where I really added heavily to a position after it pulled back from going up. I never took profits in the high 8s or low 9s. Greed and fear played a heavy role in this. I didn’t want to sell too soon and miss further gains (greed). Then I got to the point where I didn’t want to end up losing all that I had gained (fear).  I am not against getting back in on VALE if it goes back to mid to low 7s. I am not even close to confident enough to try shorting this!

Jelly

I bought 50 more shares of Smuckers (SJM) at $126.50. This brings my average price up to $126.28. I don’t just dollar cost average down. I do it up too!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SJM closed at $125.95 today. I was trying to figure out why it was down on the day. It was strong yesterday and doing well this morning before deciding to nosedive. Then I saw it on my feed. The Jefferies Group downgrade to hold with a price target of $125.00. My reaction was something like:

 

via GIPHY

I decided to do the only reasonable thing and buy more shares! I decided to go into accumulation (laughing at calling it this with only 125 shares in total) beast mode and collect all the jelly, coffee, and pet food that my portfolio can handle. Look at that beautiful flat line (pictured above joker) around $125ish + or – a few. What’s that hodge podge mumbo jumbo that I always hear repeated? What was once resistance then becomes support? Other price targets include (https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/SJM/?RegistrationCode=SocialMedia-StockTwits):

  • Credit Suisse Group AG as hold with price target (PT) of $134.00
  • Deutsche Bank AG as a buy with PT of $162.00 (raised from $150.00)
  • Out of 12 ratings there is an avg PT of $141.11 as a hold

Other things I like about SJM (brace yourself for biased puke!)

  • The company was founded in 1897!
  • 2.38% yield ($3.00 annual)
  • 14 years of consecutive divi increases (dividend.com)
  • Annualized divi growth last 5 yrs is 11.1% and last 3 years 9.1% (suck it inflation!) [Also dividend.com]
  • Pay out ratio is 46.20% for divis. Plenty of room for future growth
  • 9.60% off 52 week low and 19.08% off 52 week high
  • I love their products!

I will be eagerly watching to see if we retest $124.85 that was reached on November 18, 2016.

KTOS

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. provides mission critical products, solutions, and services primarily for the Government and commercial customers. The company operates through three segments, Kratos Government Solutions, Unmanned Systems, and Public Safety & Security. The Kratos Government Solutions segment offers microwave electronic products; satellite communications; technical and training solutions; modular systems; and defense and rocket support services. The Unmanned Systems segment provides unmanned aerial, ground, seaborne and command, control, and communications systems. The Public Safety & Security segment offers integrated solutions for homeland security, public safety, and critical infrastructure, as well as security and surveillance systems. This segment serves critical infrastructure, power generation, power transport, nuclear energy, financial, IT, healthcare, education, transportation, and petro-chemical industries, as well as government and military customers. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in San Diego, California. (yahoo finance)

I thought about maybe hopping in on a Lockheed Martin (LMT) or Raytheon (RTN) but decided to go with a riskier play (my opinion at least) in KTOS. I got in at $7.20 today. It closed at $7.32. I am keeping my stop tight on this one at $7.00.

The avg 1 yr price target according to yahoo finance is $7.67. I am looking for a larger gain with this stock though.  Kratos Receives High Performance Unmanned Aerial Drone System Contract Award. They have recently received some other contracts that you can read about on whichever site you like to use. I plan to be in and out of this one fairly quickly (maybe a week or two?). I have set my risk level already and am ready to play.

I can’t remember if it was Market Wizards or a different trading book by Steve Burns where I read that you can either care about being right or care about making money. I personally care about making money. Having the technicals and fundamentals on my side does not comfort me when I’m losing money. Nor does having the technicals and fundamentals against me dampen my exuberance when I’m making money. The buck literally stops when I click confirm trade. Money management, money management, money management…Then maybe I will work on controlling exuberance and pain cave…Work in progress…

 

Good luck to all,

 

JT

via GIPHY

 

 

I made a few transactions in the past few days. I would consider this the first time that I have actively swing traded with decent sized positions.

 

Grading Criteria I Use :

  • Single =  2-6%
  • Double=  6%-12%
  • Triple=    12-17%
  • Home Run = 17-100%
  • Grand Slam = 100%+
  • Strike Out = Stop loss out of position
  • Ball to jewels = Loss greater than stop loss position / breakdown in plan
  • Ball to face = 20% loss or greater

 

 

Valero (VLO)

Let’s start with the boring one first because this was one I bought before my change to how I will be playing my account down the road.

  • Bought 50 shares @ $55.33 in May 2016
  • Sold 50 shares @ $58.33
  •  5.4% gainer (Single)

This is not too significant because it was not a larger position. However, I am trying to build the habit of collecting a profit and moving on. It continued running up into the 59s after earnings and is now in the high 58s. I left a few shekels on the table. However, the earnings on VLO gave me an opportunity with my other trade…

 

HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC) 

  • Bought 400 shares HFC @ $23.00
  • Sold 5 shares @ $25.00
  • Sold 395 shares @ $24.90
  • 8.26% Gainer (Double)

I think this was my favorite trade from the week (not best) because of the two transactions it took to get rid of my shares. Before the day started I had a limit sell order placed at $25.00 per share. I was only able to get rid of 5 shares at this price. You read in books that for every buyer there must be a seller and vice versa. However, I have never actually experienced an issue with getting rid of or acquiring shares in one swoop. Am I happy about having to pay $4.95 twice to my broker? Nope. There are goods and bads to everything. A bad is that I do not have the ability at the moment to constantly monitor my positions. I have to rely very heavily on limit buys and stop losses. There are also some goods though which will be apparent in my next trade…

 

Hanes Brands Inc (HBI)

  • Bought 450 shares @ $23.85
  • Sold 450 shares @ $26.93
  • 12.91% gainer (Triple)

Lady luck was on my side for this trade. Hanes reported after the bell closed on Thursday and guess they did well / people liked it. It ended up at  $25.05 after hours. I thought about it and decided I would try and take my 5.03% gainer at $25.05 and walk away. I wasn’t even sure if I would get it after my experience trading HFC. I thought there might be more people taking profits ahead of me with faster access. Friday morning I managed to dump a quarter of my large coffee from Mickey D’s in my lap and forget my running shoes to a 1.5 mile foot race. Had to run in garbage minimalist shoes that I had not built up to. Calves were not pleased. After all of this, I was not expecting great things from my HBI. Best case scenario in my head was taking my 5% gain and roll into a relaxing weekend. I was leaning towards the option that my trade would not go through and having to watch the stock tank.

Apparently, I was right about people having quicker access than me. However, I was wrong in which direction they would push dthe stock. I ended up selling at $26.93 which was very close to its high of $27.07. The stock closed at $25.77. If I was actively watching this position then I doubt I would have been able to sell at the price I did. I consider the difference between 5% and 12% lucky. I did actually take a look at HBI in an earlier post on here and am happy to see I could turn a profit on it. I was pretty euphoric after this so decided not to touch anything else in the market for the day. I thought about it but kept squashing the ideas as they popped in. I realized that I was on a high and my mental state was not where it needed to be to make rational decisions.

Plan going forward

  • Starbucks (SBUX) reports NOV 3rd after bell. Give me 60s+ and might close out
  • Kroger (KR) reports DEC 1st. If it pops before then I’ll probably take some off the table, adjust my stop loss accordingly, and wait for earnings
  • I’m still watching refiners (WNR,HFC,PBF), Twitter (TWTR), and shipping stocks (SFL and NAT)
  • I do not have a solid plan about what to do with cash position but don’t mind waiting until I figure something out

Hope everyone enjoys his or her weekend!

 

JT