Success is the ability to move from one failure to another without loss of enthusiasm. -Winston Churchill

A lot happened in November 2016. I also tried my hand at trading, received some divis, and have a new forward divi outlook record for myself!

The Sleeper Portfolio:

No, this isn’t any russki KGB undercover shenanigans. I decided to temporarily suspend my trading license and move back to my divi ways as work ramps up. I had a solid month where I was able to be more active with my portfolio. It was fun and will show the results I have later. The fantastic five below:

  • BP  (cost basis lowish 30s? Honestly, not sure with lots of changes. I should track better….oh well)
  • NAT (cost basis $8.35)
  • PFE (cost basis $31.66)
  • SJM (cost basis $126.28)
  • VOD (cost basis $24.50)

I decided to take more risk with VOD as opposed to buying T or VZ. I think it’s undervalued, and if I am patient can maybe sell later next year. It has the potential to be a ‘value trap’ but think it’ll go back up at some point. I can handle being paid to wait and have accepted the risks. My forward divi outlook is now $4,358.00 annually.

November 2016 Dividends:

  • T paid $62.40
  • VZ paid $28.88
  • POT paid $20 took back $3 (Canadian company) = $17
  • NAT paid $110.50
  • Total for November 2016 = $218.78

I am okay with this as my focus was mainly on trading for the month.

RIP Trading Career (10/24/2016 – 12/02/2016)

I am not done but only temporarily paused until mid-2017 due to work picking up. My end result was a gain of 9.58% over the course of the time period above. My peak performance was at the close of 11/28 which would have left me with a 12.36% gain. However, I let the gains slip away as I did not get out of VALE, FCX, and BHP at their high points. I actually took a very very small loss on BHP! Then I made poor trades on ATVI (largest loss during this period) and HACK. BP decided to be a hero after the OPEC meeting to help salvage the results.

I still have one last trade open with KTOS that I am waiting to close out. My avg price is $7.20 with it closing on 12/02/2016 at $7.94. I am currently up 10.21% on this trade. I originally thought of just closing out at $8.00 but have now decided to get greedy (I admit it!) on this trade and just see if I can let it run. I am not sure when I will take my first profits as I will most likely try to scale out and adjust stop loss. My stop is currently at $7.00. I will be adjusting this shortly.

Plan Going Forward:

Whenever I do close out the KTOS trade, I will be keeping a cash reserve. The only thing that I might possibly do with it is buy more of one of the 5 stocks that I own if they go down a lot! I do not plan on adding money to them unless I think it has a decent chance of running up. I am slowly starting to learn the value of cash. No reason to be fully invested all the time. A little patience can go along ways.

I was just going to max out my 2016 Roth contribution, but now have decided to start working on 2017 as well after I finish up with 2016. I keep it very simple by just investing fully into VSIAX (small cap value index fund). I was in a life strategy earlier in the year. I’ve got no time for bonds though. No time. Give me stocks for better or worse.

I still plan to read about investing and trading going forward. My enthusiasm for trading has not been dampened even with some of the mistakes that I made. I just will not have the capability to do it for a while. It is nice going back home to the divis. It’s not nearly as stressful as tracking daily/weekly fluctuations. I am looking forward to the break to hopefully grow my knowledge on trading and investing.

I hope everyone had a good November 2016 as well! Here’s to December!

 

JT

 

I worship scones and danishes. If I never had another meal, I wouldn’t care as long as I could eat pastries and jelly doughnuts. -Gene Simmons (BrainyQuote.com)

OPEC, VALE, jelly, and KTOS…It was not as busy as Tuesday but there was more activity in my portfolio than usual.

OPEC 

They decided to cut production. Oil is right under $50 now. I’m glad I filled up on gas yesterday! It kind of hurt looking at CHK, USO, RIG, and MRO today on my watch list. I considered rolling the dice on those yesterday, but I decided to restrain myself against socially acceptable gambling. I console myself with the 4.45% increase that BP had. Congratulations to those that made money! To those that lost, I will send out an E-hug to you in the ether…

VALE

It was fun while it lasted. I thought it would actually survive the day. However, it decided to go to the dark side after lunch. My stop loss got triggered at $8.40 and ended up selling all shares at $8.4101. This comes out to a 20.49% gain for the rest of my shares. This is my first trade where I really added heavily to a position after it pulled back from going up. I never took profits in the high 8s or low 9s. Greed and fear played a heavy role in this. I didn’t want to sell too soon and miss further gains (greed). Then I got to the point where I didn’t want to end up losing all that I had gained (fear).  I am not against getting back in on VALE if it goes back to mid to low 7s. I am not even close to confident enough to try shorting this!

Jelly

I bought 50 more shares of Smuckers (SJM) at $126.50. This brings my average price up to $126.28. I don’t just dollar cost average down. I do it up too!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SJM closed at $125.95 today. I was trying to figure out why it was down on the day. It was strong yesterday and doing well this morning before deciding to nosedive. Then I saw it on my feed. The Jefferies Group downgrade to hold with a price target of $125.00. My reaction was something like:

 

via GIPHY

I decided to do the only reasonable thing and buy more shares! I decided to go into accumulation (laughing at calling it this with only 125 shares in total) beast mode and collect all the jelly, coffee, and pet food that my portfolio can handle. Look at that beautiful flat line (pictured above joker) around $125ish + or – a few. What’s that hodge podge mumbo jumbo that I always hear repeated? What was once resistance then becomes support? Other price targets include (https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/SJM/?RegistrationCode=SocialMedia-StockTwits):

  • Credit Suisse Group AG as hold with price target (PT) of $134.00
  • Deutsche Bank AG as a buy with PT of $162.00 (raised from $150.00)
  • Out of 12 ratings there is an avg PT of $141.11 as a hold

Other things I like about SJM (brace yourself for biased puke!)

  • The company was founded in 1897!
  • 2.38% yield ($3.00 annual)
  • 14 years of consecutive divi increases (dividend.com)
  • Annualized divi growth last 5 yrs is 11.1% and last 3 years 9.1% (suck it inflation!) [Also dividend.com]
  • Pay out ratio is 46.20% for divis. Plenty of room for future growth
  • 9.60% off 52 week low and 19.08% off 52 week high
  • I love their products!

I will be eagerly watching to see if we retest $124.85 that was reached on November 18, 2016.

KTOS

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. provides mission critical products, solutions, and services primarily for the Government and commercial customers. The company operates through three segments, Kratos Government Solutions, Unmanned Systems, and Public Safety & Security. The Kratos Government Solutions segment offers microwave electronic products; satellite communications; technical and training solutions; modular systems; and defense and rocket support services. The Unmanned Systems segment provides unmanned aerial, ground, seaborne and command, control, and communications systems. The Public Safety & Security segment offers integrated solutions for homeland security, public safety, and critical infrastructure, as well as security and surveillance systems. This segment serves critical infrastructure, power generation, power transport, nuclear energy, financial, IT, healthcare, education, transportation, and petro-chemical industries, as well as government and military customers. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in San Diego, California. (yahoo finance)

I thought about maybe hopping in on a Lockheed Martin (LMT) or Raytheon (RTN) but decided to go with a riskier play (my opinion at least) in KTOS. I got in at $7.20 today. It closed at $7.32. I am keeping my stop tight on this one at $7.00.

The avg 1 yr price target according to yahoo finance is $7.67. I am looking for a larger gain with this stock though.  Kratos Receives High Performance Unmanned Aerial Drone System Contract Award. They have recently received some other contracts that you can read about on whichever site you like to use. I plan to be in and out of this one fairly quickly (maybe a week or two?). I have set my risk level already and am ready to play.

I can’t remember if it was Market Wizards or a different trading book by Steve Burns where I read that you can either care about being right or care about making money. I personally care about making money. Having the technicals and fundamentals on my side does not comfort me when I’m losing money. Nor does having the technicals and fundamentals against me dampen my exuberance when I’m making money. The buck literally stops when I click confirm trade. Money management, money management, money management…Then maybe I will work on controlling exuberance and pain cave…Work in progress…

 

Good luck to all,

 

JT

via GIPHY